Man City v Newcastle (19.11, 15:00);
over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half (1.80)
Man City is definitely one of the
'in-form' teams in Europe's top flights at the moment, they've won
all but one game in the Premier League so far and have been faring
alright in the Champions League, too. With Yaya Toure and either
Gareth Barry or Nigel de Jong in the centre of the park the atacking
players have the comfort to freely combine to produce some
exhilirating football up front and they have done so to devastating
effect – scoring 39 goals in 11 games in the league alone. The
Newcastle side they're facing is the only other unbeaten team in the
league however Alan Pardew's team is yet to beat an opposition from
the top 10 - they've drawn with Spurs, Arsenal and Villa, scoring
only 2 in the process. Newcastle's away record is nevertheless quite
impressive as it includes beating the Europa League sensation Stoke
(always very strong at their home turf) and a 1-0 win over Sunderland
in the hotly contested Tyne Wear derby. In all but one of the last 6
games Newcastle scored at least 2 goals; both teams scored the
majority of their goals in the second halves, too. At 1.80, over 1.5
goals in the 2nd half, looks like a good call.
Wigan v Blackburn (19.11, 15:00); both
teams to score (1.67)
If Blackburn have done only one thing
worth mentioning this season – beating Arsenal 4:3 after a
thrilling game – then Wigan have not even done that. Having scored
7 in 11 games and losing their last 8 they have the worst goal record
in the entire league. Blackburn, on the other hand, have the second
worst goal record (joint with Stoke) and have also conceded a
staggering 24 in 11 league games (and haven't kept a clean sheet in
cup games either). Abysmal defending meets a rather laughable strike
force at the bottom of the table; however, last season when the two
met it finished 4:3 to Wigan (remember that crazy February weekend
with over 40 goals in 8 games?) and when's a better time to change
something in your team than an almost 2-week long international
break? With the odds at 1.67 this six-pointer could produce a
completely unexpected goals bonanza.
Sunderland v Fulham (19.11, 15:00) X at
halftime or fulltime (1.60)
Fulham are not exactly convincing away
– only 4 points out of possible 15. Similarly, Sunderland have not
won too many fans over with their performances at the Stadium of
Light – with 1 win in 5 games they occupy 15th spot. In
Fulham's defence, Martin Jol's team is doing rather well in the
Europa League where they have all but qualified. Their lacklustre
form in the domestic competition might be a sign of the team which
still haven't found its rhythm in the weekend-to-midweek-fixture
system, however their fans surely hope Jol has found the right
formula during the international break. Damien Duff, elated with
Ireland's qualification for the Euro 2012 is going to threaten the
rather resolute Sunderland's back line and with Seb Larsson suspended
for 3 games, the Black Cats might find it difficult to produce
quality in Fulham's third.
Napoli v Lazio (19.11, 19:45) X2 (1.72)
Lazio are impressive on the road this
season, having won 4 out of 5 and drawn the remaining one. Napoli
seem to be focusing on the Champions League (and understandably so as
they haven't played in the competition for quite a few years now!)
and this reflects their Serie A form which seems to follow a pattern
of lost-draw-win. At San Paolo they've beaten the leaders Udinese
(joint with...Lazio) but have also lost to the relative outsiders
Parma or drew with Fiorentina which is mediocre at best this season.
It does look as if Napoli are able to motivate themselves extra for
the 'big' games (AC Milan, Inter, Udinese – all
won) but with a massive home fixture to Man City on Tuesday they
might have to play cautiously as not to compromise their chances of
progression to the knock-out phase.
SC Heerenveen v RKC
Waalwijk (19.11, 18:45) 1 to win both halves (2.00)
Heerenveen are on a
very good run of form, they haven't lost since the 1-5 drubbing
against Twente on 20 August; they have won 5 out of 9 games played
since then and 3 of the last 3 (putting 4 past Utrecht and ADO Den
Haag). Bas Doost and Oussama Assaidi have been particularly
impressive, notching 8 and 7 goals respectively. Waalwijk on the the
other hand, have endured a miserable run of 5 games without a win and
have only scored 2 in those. Their away form is just as bad (4 lost
out of 6) and with Abe Lenstra ground starting to resemble a
stronghold it is difficult to see past the home team in this one.
Schalke 04 v FC
Nurnberg (19.11, 14:30) Klaas Jan-Huntelaar to score at any time
(2.00)
Nurnberg have leaked
20 in 11 games and Huntelaar has scored 10 in 11 (and an impressive
21 in 19 in all competitions this season). Schalke have been on a
good run of form as of late and Nurnberg just can't find the winning
formula for over 2 months now. Even with Farfan out, The Hunter (as
Huntelaar's has aptly been nicknamed) should be able to find the net.
Legia Warszawa v
Lechia Gdansk (19.11, 17:00) 1 to win without conceding (2.05)
Legia has not
conceded a goal in the Polish Ekstraklasa in 6 games and in the
meantime have also qualified to the knock-out stage of Europa League
after only 4 group games. Lechia have recently sacked Tomasz
Kafarski after the goalless draw against Widzew, which was
symptomatic of their goal scoring malaise this year; they have
managed only 6 in 13 games and 1 in the last 7. Legia's Kuciak has
gelled with the back four almost immediately and this seems to have
given the entire team a lot of confidence when going forward. With
the stakes being still relatively high it seems to be a good time to
bet on Maciej Skorza's outfit.
Barcelona v Real Zaragoza
(19.11, 19:00) Leo Messi to score at any time (1.35)
Barcelona are undisputed
favourites of this one, in fact if they win by less than a 2 goal
margin it might come as a bit of a shock. Zaragoza are struggling for
goals – only 12 in 11 and no wins away from La Romareda. Gone are
the days of D'Alessandro, Milito, Aimar, Ayala...sorry, got a bit
carried away there. Messi is a goal machine at Camp Nou and this game
shouldn't be any different from the previous ones where he's scored 23 in 18.
And some more fixtures
I've been contemplating putting money on (but couldn't be
bothered to do a write-up on).
Montpellier v Marseille
(19.11, 20:00), over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Dijon v Girondins Bordeaux
(19.11, 18:00) over 2.5 goals (2.15)
PSG v AS Nancy (20.11,
20:00) Nene to score at any time (2.10)
Stuttgart v Augsburg
(20.11, 14:30), 1 (1.40)
Bayern Munchen v Borussia
Dortmund (19.11, 17:30), Thomas Muller to score at any time (3.00)
Real Sociedad v Espanyol
(20.11, 11:00) X halftime or fulltime (1.60)
Rangers v St. Johnstone
(19.11, 16:00) Nikica Jelavic to score at any time (no odds on bwin,
worth looking into though).
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